Separate booked, billed and received
Use three clear measures. Bookings describe contracted or expected occupation under your agreed definition. Billing shows what has been charged. Receipts show what has arrived. Reconcile differences before relying on them in a forecast.
Map the main receipt dates
Use the actual payment schedule for the accommodation business. Identify overdue amounts and assumptions about collections. Keep future bookings visibly separate from existing contracted income.
Put summer work on the same calendar
List cleaning, repairs, refurbishment and other turnover-period commitments with expected payment dates. Distinguish approved work from items still being considered, and update the forecast when the programme changes.
Keep the building view
Compare income and relevant operating costs by block using consistent definitions. Occupancy alone cannot explain energy cost changes, maintenance spikes or a difference in collection performance. The operating team’s context matters.
Review the gaps early
Test the effect of later receipts, lower future bookings or additional works using assumptions grounded in your business. Discuss what would change operationally before the pressure arrives. Be clear about who handles lettings, tenant communications and finance.
Where to start
The first useful exercise is one calendar showing expected receipts, committed spending and the academic-year milestones. The model can become more detailed once those dates are reliable.